Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Ubisoft believes in Kinect

   Using history as my guide, I can predict how the Kinect will fare in the marketplace when it's released next month. All of the game analysts can crunch their numbers, work the potential sales models, and make their projections but all that is for naught. The Kinect is going to be a failure just like Sony's Move is going to be a failure. It's not me saying it though - history is talking and what it says is that accessories don't make a console. Despite the "excitement" and activity centered around the Kinect and Move in the market right now, the adoption of the accessories will never reach a level that'll convince publishers to continue making games for them.

   The news about Ubisoft angling to become a major player in Kinect game software has my brain ticking and making plans. With my conviction that the Kinect is going to be a failure and Ubisoft's conviction in the Kinect, that leaves me with one conclusion: Short Ubisoft shares on the Euronext Paris bourse. There's nothing else to do when I'm shown an opportunity. I won't start shorting until after Christmas however. Sales for anything related to video games go on a rampage during the entire month of December so Ubisoft shares are probably going to get some appreciation. The new year should bring reality crashing down on Kinect however and I'll be waiting.

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