CES 2011 - Avatar Kinect for the Xbox 360 Interview

Avatar Kinect is kinda dumb.

Avatar Kinect for the Xbox 360 Announcement @ CES 2011

Steve Ballmer pushes Kinect and Avatar on Kinect.

Racist Xbox Kinect Support Prank Call

She's remarkably patient but I suppose they're trained to be congenial no matter how dumb the caller is.

Kinect doesn't connect in Japan

   Following the stunning sales of the Kinect in the United States, the Xbox 360 hardware accessory has met a more muted response in Japan. According to new data from Media Create, the Kinect sold 26,000 units in its first two days of sales on November 20-21. Earlier this month, Microsoft sold a million Kinects in the first 10 days of availability in the United States. The Kinect currently retails for JPY14,800 which converts to roughly US$175.

Microsoft Moves a Million Kinects in 10 days

   Since its launch on November 4, 2010, Microsoft has sold 1 million Kinect units and bundles in the first 10 days of availability. The Kinect is Microsoft's answer to the Wii's motion-sensing Remote and Nunchuk controllers which allows gamers to play video games without using a handheld controller. Microsoft is expecting to sell a total of 5 million Kinects by the end of 2010 which is up from the company's earlier projection of 3 million units.
  
   Sony's answer to the Nintendo Remote and Wii is a device called the "Move" which shipped to American retailers on September 17, 2010. According to Sony, over 1 million Move devices have sold in the first 30 days of availability.

Using Kinect to Capture Video in 3D

The Kinect hacks keep coming. Check out this video from "KinectHacks" which shows off 3D images that have been captured by the Microsoft Kinect camera... but that's not all. He's projecting the color images back out into space to create a "holographic" representation of the persons or objects that are bring captured.

Nintendo targeting 45 million in total Wii sales before next console

   In an interview with Kotaku, Reggie Fils-Aime stated that Nintendo is looking to sell at least another 15 million in the United States before considering the development of their next console. Nintendo has sold 30.4 million consoles in the U.S. market thus far. Despite the competition from Microsoft's Kinect and Sony's Move, Reggie didn't see a pressing need to address the Kinect or the Move now.
  
   "After we've reached an installed base of 45 million here in the U.S., we can have a conversation about the next generation," said Fils-Aime. He also went on to say that a succesor to the Wii would not be forthcoming for the 2011 holiday season. The Wii was released on November 19, 2006 so it took the company four years to sell 30.4 million consoles. Sales are slower nowadays but they'll probably move the next 15 million consoles within 3 years time. If that's the case, then the successor to the Wii won't be heading to retail until 2015.

Kinect costs $56 to manufacture

   That’s the consensus from an outfit known as UBM TechInsights which provides IP lifecycle management services. According to an article in the EE times, approximately $17 goes to the camera, sensors, the microphone array which contains four mics, and the processor. The remaining $39 in costs is parceled out between the memory chips, the camera interface controller, subprocessors, USB connectors, and the snazzy black plastic shell that encases the whole shebang.

   Before griping about the nearly $100 difference between production cost and retail price, consumers will have to take into account the manufacturing costs, Microsoft’s promotional campaigns for the Kinect, R&D, and the costs of getting the product into stores.


    “Basically, the strength of the design is the huge design win for the Israeli fabless company PrimeSense,” said Allan Yogasingam, a technical marketing manager at UBM TechInsights. “They’ve provided the most innovative portion of the Kinect with their image processor, audio and video interface.”

    A listing of the major parts found by UBM TechInsights within Kinect:

* PrimeSense PS1080-A2 – PS1080 SoC image sensor processor (works with CMOS image sensor and an IR light source)
* Marvell 88AP1-BJD2 – Possible Marvell camera interface controller
* Elpida E5116AJBG-6E-E – 70nm DDR2 SDRAM (SI#18324)
* (2) Marvell G39 00A1P
* H1025519 XBOX1001 X851716-006 GEPP – Serial EEPROM for Marvell Controller
* Fairchild Semiconductor FDS8984 – N-Channel PowerTrench MOSFET
* NEC uPD720114 – USB 2.0 hub controller
* (2) Wolfson Microelectronics WM8737G – Stereo ADC with microphone preamp (one for every two microphones)
* STMicroelectronics 25P16V6G – M25P16 – 16 Mbit, low voltage, Serial Flash memory with 50 MHz SPI bus interface
* STMicroelectronics H28A 9017
* WT245 – Texas Instruments SN74AVC4T245RGYR – 4-bit noninverting dual-supply bus transceiver
* Texas Instruments 70530-08T-AVF4 –  TPS3705-30 – Processor Supervisory Circuits with Power-Fail
* Texas Instruments TAS1020B – universal serial bus (USB) peripheral interface device
* Kionix KXSD9 – 3-axis accelerometer
* (2) Analog Devices AD8694 – Quad, Low Cost, Low Noise, CMOS Rail-to-Rail Output Operational Amplifier
* TI ADS7830I – 8-Bit, 8-Channel Sampling A/D Converter with I2C Interface
* Allegro Microsystems A3906 – Low Voltage Stepper and Single/Dual DC Motor Driver
* STMicroelectronics M29W800DB – 8 Mbit (1Mb x8 or 512Kb x16) NV Flash Memory

Ubisoft believes in Kinect

   Using history as my guide, I can predict how the Kinect will fare in the marketplace when it's released next month. All of the game analysts can crunch their numbers, work the potential sales models, and make their projections but all that is for naught. The Kinect is going to be a failure just like Sony's Move is going to be a failure. It's not me saying it though - history is talking and what it says is that accessories don't make a console. Despite the "excitement" and activity centered around the Kinect and Move in the market right now, the adoption of the accessories will never reach a level that'll convince publishers to continue making games for them.

   The news about Ubisoft angling to become a major player in Kinect game software has my brain ticking and making plans. With my conviction that the Kinect is going to be a failure and Ubisoft's conviction in the Kinect, that leaves me with one conclusion: Short Ubisoft shares on the Euronext Paris bourse. There's nothing else to do when I'm shown an opportunity. I won't start shorting until after Christmas however. Sales for anything related to video games go on a rampage during the entire month of December so Ubisoft shares are probably going to get some appreciation. The new year should bring reality crashing down on Kinect however and I'll be waiting.